History in the Making: Russian Invasion

i wonder what happens to all the Nazis if all involved parties agreed to those terms tomorrow?

What's the bet the Russia will use some Security Council head powers (whatever they are?) to try and get the UN to intervene to stop the Ukrainian aggressions?

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Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be setting conditions to weaponize the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a method of Russian power projection in advance of Russia’s accession to the rotating UNSC presidency in April. Russian UN Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya stated during a press conference on March 21 that Russia plans to hold an informal UNSC meeting in early April to discuss the “real situation” of “Ukrainian children taken to Russia.”[1] Nebenzya claimed that Russia planned to hold the meeting before the announcement of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrants for Putin and Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova for the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.[2] Nebenzya’s announcement, as well as vitriolic denials of the ICC’s accusations by Russian officials, come as Kremlin-appointed occupation officials continue to facilitate the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia under a variety of schemes and guises.[3] Putin additionally made a number of notable comments proclaiming Russia’s commitment to the UN, UNSC, and the UN charter during his press conference with Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 21.[4] Taken in tandem, Nebenzya’s and Putin’s comments suggest that Russia continues to use its position on the UNSC as a base of power projection as the UNSC prepares for Russia to take the UNSC presidency in April.[5] By setting information conditions to posture about Russia’s supposed commitment to the UNSC, Putin is positioning himself to continue to weaponize and exploit Russia’s UNSC veto power in the coming months.

aircooled said:

T-54 Russian tanks were spotted on the way to the frontline

Ouch!  These went into service in 1946!!

I would suspect these will be used as pillboxes in defensive positions, or maybe just low loss targets for expensive western weapons.

Minesweepers 

Apparently the 100mm gun on the T-54s is still in use, so it's not completely out of scope.

I have a lot of... thoughts about it. On one hand, they might be more fodder for the DPR/LDR since they're not allowed mainline equipment. Another is that perhaps, this is an example of Russia's loss of trucks and transport equipment to the point where ANYTHING with a running engine and can cross bad roads is needed. Perhaps the railyards didn't have enough to send so they tossed it on for appearances? On top of this, it's armor was thin even for its era (supposedly) and we see no modern... ERA armors, so will it get that from what's on the front or will it see any up-armoring at all?

Basically, I can't apply sense to anything that we're seeing sent to the front because the Russian military has been running WITHOUT sense. Like I could easily see these as being sent because they expect the better tanks to get stuck in the mud and they need something equal to pull them out!

The US opened a permanent military base in Poland

GIRTHQUAKE said:

Apparently the 100mm gun on the T-54s is still in use, so it's not completely out of scope.

I have a lot of... thoughts about it. On one hand, they might be more fodder for the DPR/LDR since they're not allowed mainline equipment. Another is that perhaps, this is an example of Russia's loss of trucks and transport equipment to the point where ANYTHING with a running engine and can cross bad roads is needed. Perhaps the railyards didn't have enough to send so they tossed it on for appearances? On top of this, it's armor was thin even for its era (supposedly) and we see no modern... ERA armors, so will it get that from what's on the front or will it see any up-armoring at all?

Basically, I can't apply sense to anything that we're seeing sent to the front because the Russian military has been running WITHOUT sense. Like I could easily see these as being sent because they expect the better tanks to get stuck in the mud and they need something equal to pull them out!

See, if we really want to mess with their minds, what we need to do is start issuing good old-fashioned WWII/Korea vintage bazookas.  Maybe that'll get the Russians to start fielding T-34's!

You know how someone telling you to ignore something, makes you pay more attention to it?

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Shoigu likely signaled to Japan that it should not attempt to exploit Russia’s current military vulnerability in the Kuril Islands and to China that Russia remains a worthwhile military partner. Shoigu extolled the strength of Russia’s Eastern Military District (EMD) at length and announced that the EMD deployed a battery of Bastion coastal defense missile systems on Paramushir Island—an island in the northern portion of the Russian-occupied Japanese Kuril Islands. Shoigu’s statement was likely a warning signal to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who visited Kyiv and Bucha on March 21, about becoming too engaged in supporting Ukraine.[11] The Russian Eastern Military District is severely degraded. Significant Russian EMD elements deployed to Belarus and were badly damaged during the Battle of Kyiv in early 2022. Russian EMD elements of the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades recently fought and suffered heavy losses near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast in early 2023.[12] The 155th has been destroyed and reconstituted as many as eight times in the past year.[13] Shoigu’s statement was also likely a signal to Chinese President Xi Jinping that Russia supports Chinese security objectives in East Asia and remains a viable military partner despite the terrible damage Ukraine has inflicted on the Russian military.

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Weird trivia: 

1983 paint by Volkswagen with short manufacturer/year paint code of LH5T. This blue automotive paint color is most commonly known as Kuril Blue. The color formulation has been used between 1983 and 1984, primarily by Volkswagen

It's such a rare color, I cannot find any good pictures of it on the Google.  If you search you will find a lot of colors that are not Kuril blue (it's a very dark blue).  I know the color because I once painted a car that color.  Here is the hex approximate:

This Van appears to have the front painted that color:

Right now, there is zero chance of Japan grabbing the northern Kurils. The optics are terrible, and it would be seen by many as just as provocative as the Russian move into Ukraine (and Japan's land-grabbing history has not been forgotten, least of all in East Asia). Now, if this statement is intended to set up a Russian domestic propaganda line supporting the "we're surrounded by enemies" narrative, then it makes some degree of sense. As implausible and unimportant as may be to most, it may have value in shoring up domestic support for additional measures, such as renewed and expanded mobilizations.

Although the Kurils are in a climactically harsh location, parts are stunningly beautiful. I can certainly understand Japan's desire to take it back at least to the 1855 border. It's got to suck having a belligerent 25 miles away. 

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

Although the Kurils are in a climactically harsh location, parts are stunningly beautiful. I can certainly understand Japan's desire to take it back at least to the 1855 border. It's got to suck having a belligerent 25 miles away. 

Plus, the way the Soviets grabbed those islands is kind of BS. For those who don't know, the USSR declared war on Japan AFTER the Hiroshima bombing. They were "at war" for a grand total of about 3 weeks, which was long enough for Stalin to grab up some land, including the Kurils. I can see why the Japanese might still be a bit salty over that.

In reply to Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) :

There's also a strong likelihood that the Kurils are sitting on a big oil reserve.

In reply to stroker :

I still would not want to get shot with a bazooka, and with the fighting now no different than WW1 trench combat, those old weapons will be every bit as effective. Strange that in an era of unmanned drones the Russians are being sent to kill the enemy armed with shovels, into withering machine gun fire. The US forces have lost 7000 servicemen in the 13 years since 9/11, and in Bakhmut alone have been around 10,000 Russian deaths, mostly at short (bazooka) range. 

In reply to bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) :

Similar indeed...

Ukrainian Troops Are Still Using This Pre-World War I-Era Maxim Machine Gun In Combat

02Pilot said:

In reply to bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) :

Similar indeed...

Ukrainian Troops Are Still Using This Pre-World War I-Era Maxim Machine Gun In Combat

Well I suppose effective killing at short range using manual sighting was pretty much perfected by war one.

The Ukrainians hit a railhead in northern Crimea the other day with "some sort" of drones.  A domestically made one?  Apparently blew up a delivery of Kalibr cruise missiles at over 100 km from the front lines.  Why northern Crimea?  Because their heavy rail lines have to go rather far north (seen below) to get to Sevastopol.

US made copies of Russian small arms

From 2019.  Interesting.

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) :

There's also a strong likelihood that the Kurils are sitting on a big oil reserve.

I assume the Japanese authorities were not aware of this at the time.

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:

Well I suppose effective killing at short range using manual sighting was pretty much perfected by war one.

Maxims are definitely not being used this way in Ukraine (esp. since the risk is Russia replying with artillery), but as far as  "short range" in WW1 goes:

This is the simplified rear sight with no provision for lateral adjustment. It is graduated to 2700 meters, and calibrated for the 182 grain Heavy Bullet load. This load was developed specifically for long range and indirect fire use in machineguns.

SAR article

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) :

There's also a strong likelihood that the Kurils are sitting on a big oil reserve.

I assume the Japanese authorities were not aware of this at the time.

 

Wow. That could have changed the course of history. Had the Japanese been oil independent, would the attack at Pearl Harbor have happened? How would that have effected the rest of WWII? If we did go to war with them anyway, how much would the oil supply have changed the outcome of the conflict? Where's my wayback machine?

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) :

There's also a strong likelihood that the Kurils are sitting on a big oil reserve.

I assume the Japanese authorities were not aware of this at the time.

 

Wow. That could have changed the course of history. Had the Japanese been oil independent, would the attack at Pearl Harbor have happened? How would that have effected the rest of WWII? If we did go to war with them anyway, how much would the oil supply have changed the outcome of the conflict? Where's my wayback machine?

If you haven't already, read Edward S. Miller's Bankrupting the Enemy and Michael Barnhart's Japan Prepares for Total War. You might also want to check out Sadao Asada's From Mahan to Pearl Harbor.

So, this would be what, the 24th time Russia has threatened / implied use of nuclear weapons?

At some point, the threats get a bit hollow.

Calling depleted uranium rounds "nuclear" is a bit like accusing someone of who uses lead bullets of using chemical weapons because of the lead poisoning.

aircooled said:

So, this would be what, the 24th time Russia has threatened / implied use of nuclear weapons?

At some point, the threats get a bit hollow.

Calling depleted uranium rounds "nuclear" is a bit like accusing someone of who uses lead bullets of using chemical weapons because of the lead poisoning.

Thanks for pointing that out for the rational ones playing at home

tuna55 said:

aircooled said:

So, this would be what, the 24th time Russia has threatened / implied use of nuclear weapons?

At some point, the threats get a bit hollow.

Calling depleted uranium rounds "nuclear" is a bit like accusing someone of who uses lead bullets of using chemical weapons because of the lead poisoning.

Thanks for pointing that out for the rational ones playing at home

Plus evidently, Russia also uses depleted uranium rounds.

APnews.com: A look at the uranium-based ammo the UK will send to Ukraine

Flightradar showed an RAF Rivet Joint driving around the black sea several hours ago, accompanied by a pair of Typhoons, if I remember correctly. Probably not the kind of thing that would get oopsied out of the sky.