History in the Making: Russian Invasion

VolvoHeretic said:

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to aircooled :

That will make starting back up difficult; the big pond is needed to cool the plant while running.  The little pond is the safety cooling pond needed to keep the sight safely cool while shutdown; thankfully it appears to be intact.  

That big pond is what used to be the Kakhovka Reservoir. At least it looks like the old river channel is pretty close to the power plant and water could be pumped to the plant's cooling pond.

wikipedia.org: Kakhovka Reservoir

Edit: Or are you calling that little finger strip of water inside the square pond the safety cooling pond?

The little square is the safety cooling water.  The river could be pumped to the plant, but I bet the site was established to pull water from the reservoir.  The river might not be capable of providing the cooling capacity needed for a multi-unit site.  Starting back up is going to be a big problem.  This definitely creates regional energy problems.  Attacking infrastructure may hurt the military in the short term, but it destroys local communities. 

GIRTHQUAKE said:

In reply to aircooled :

Any serious chance that the ZNPP plant could blow needs to be an automatic Article 5 escalation/America gets involved scenario. 

Nuclear terrorism cannot, and SHOULD not, ever be accepted or allowed to become an option for nations in hostilities.

As long as they keep the cooling pond they should be able to maintain the multi-unit site in safe shutdown.  The site also needs a source of offsite power to do that and / or a lot of diesel fuel for the backup generators.  It was a loss of long term cooling that eventually led to the fuel failures and resulting explosions at Fukushima.  When nuclear fuel fails it starts releasing lots of hydrogen.  Hydrogen and oxygen in the right ratios isn't very unstable. 

My understanding is that all the reactors at this site are shutdown.  The amount of cooling needed depends on how much power they were making, how long since shutdown, how much fuel is in them and how much spent fuel is stored on site.  Nuclear fuel needs to be kept cooled long term in order to be safe.  Once it's been cooled long enough it can be transferred to alternate means of storage. 

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

Russians don't care about local communities and would rather have another Chernobyl or worse, they've put mines in place to destroy the small pond at will. I'll agree that this would basically escalate to a nearly nuclear engagement severity if they blow it up.

GIRTHQUAKE said:

Since then, there's been 4 other VIBEDs. The Russians are literally following Syrian rebel tactics with them, using the shockwaves to clear mines and trenches.

I was looking for more info about Russian VIBED weapons, but Google was only coming up with dance parties in Russia.

TIL it's actually VBIED. 

Zelensky is trying to set expectations.  As noted going slow for them is essentially a good plan for them as they wait for some useful equipment (e.g. having F16's to counter Russian airpower would be very useful).

 

Advance of Ukrainian forces is not easy as 200,000 km² of Ukrainian territory is mined by Russian troops - Volodymyr Zelenskyy for Air Force

“Whatever some people want, including attempts to pressure us, with all due respect, we will advance on the battlefield as we see fit,” the president stressed.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy also noted that the counteroffensive is slower than we would like.

“Some people think this is a Hollywood movie and are waiting for the results now. This is wrong. People's lives are at stake.

No matter how far we advance in the counteroffensive, we will not go for a frozen conflict, because this is a war, this is a hopeless development for Ukraine,” the president said.

As for the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation, Vladimir Zelensky does not believe in such a prospect.

The Ukrainians have been getting good use out of the Storm Shadows.  They have been suspected to have been used in the killing of the Russian general and taking out an important radar station.  It kind of seems like the Russians have little defense for them.  Not sure why.  Maybe they fly a bit lower and are stealthier then what the Russians are using.  The Russian cruise missiles BTW, are a rather old design.  The Kh-55 (the most common one used by the Russians) is from the 80's and has a nice round shape, perfect for creating radar returns from any angle.

"Of the total number of Storm Shadow launches that took place, all were 100% hits on the targets specified by the General Staff.
100 per 100, absolutely effective", - said the Minister of Defense of Ukraine.

Kh-55

Storm Shadow:

While acknowledging that willfully inducing a release of radioactive material would certainly be a rather heinous act, it is fundamentally not the same thing as a nuclear attack. Nor does it fall anywhere within the boundaries of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty:

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

Article 6

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

• on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
• on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

Aside from the obvious contamination caused by such an event, it would certainly have diplomatic repercussions, especially within countries that to this point have been non-committal in their position. Russia is likely to see diminished support from countries that could be directly affected by fallout, such as Turkey, as well as places like India, which have nuclear plants - and anti-nuclear protest movements - of their own. Should any formal action be taken, one would expect it to occur somewhere like the ICC or some temporary court established as part of the Hague Tribunal.

My suspicion is if they Russian blow anything up there that would cause a potential problem, it would likely be the cooling pond, as they retreated from the Ukrainians, making it the Ukrainians problem, and (in their propaganda) caused by the Ukrainians.  Depending on the state of the plant at that time, it could be a big problem.

They also could be planning on blowing something up that will disable the plant.  This would deny the Ukrainians the power, but as of this point, the plant is only powering Russian held areas.  It could also be a big distraction in general of course.

Not sure what they would blow up that would not risk a major release.  Maybe the secondary cooling system (not radioactive side of the system that powers the steam generators), or the generators.  Not even sure that plant has a secondary cooling system, I think some Russian reactors didn't.  Someone here noted though that this one is a different design than Chernobyl, which didn't even have a containment dome (didn't need it, it was so safe.....)

Now, if the Russians do blow something up there to cause trouble, or be spiteful, or whatever, they probably would not intentionally do it to create a release, but.... Russia.... "let's just blow a small hole in this dam to slowly flood downstream and not kill our own guys" Russia.....

Edit:  just saw where the Ukrainian intelligence guy who talked about this specifically noted they mined "the cooling system".  That could certainly mean any of the above though.

Yahoo.com: Ukraine dam: Satellite images reveal Kakhovka canals drying up

Multiple outlets are reporting an overnight strike on the Chonhar bridges connecting Crimea to Kherson. This suggests a Ukrainian effort to isolate the area of operations from possible supply and reinforcement from the south. It also indicates that a strike into Crimea is not likely part of the operational planning, but rather a division of Russian territory that isolates it. Already, the situation in Crimea is problematic due to the lack of water following the dam breach and reported cholera outbreaks from people drinking from unsafe sources. Further isolation is likely to unnerve the civilian population, which creates potential logistics and internal security issues for Russia down the line.

How quickly will the population of Crimea turn from Russian citizen patriots to human shields?

In reply to 02Pilot :

I've seen reports of Russian soldiers getting cholera, have there been accounts of it happening to civilians in Crimea, too?

In reply to 02Pilot :

My guess would be Storm Shadows again.  The Russians just can't seem to stop them.

There has been a rather obvious focus on supply, logistics and command targets by the Ukrainians.  Perhaps another reason why the Ukrainians seem to be slow playing the situation.  Waiting for these strikes to take effect.

The analogy here is the boxer who keeps striking their opponent with body blows.  Each body blow itself is not that bad, but they have a cumulative effect.  His head may be clear, his arms a legs uninjured, but if he can't breath.....

What I'm still pondering is why the Russians effectively cut off the Crimean canal? Were they that afraid of the Ukraine counterattack that they'd sacrifice something so important? Or was it yet another case of Russian blundering?   

My question about the lake pics above was: how does this affect the farming / crops situation?  I don't know how much irrigation they do there, but clearly the Southern area will loose any and the the areas north of the lake may have some issues.

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

One thing I saw (?) said they may have been trying to create a minor flood but keep most of the dam intact (e.g. high enough to feed the canal).  So, maybe a blunder.  Certainly could be a lack of coordination / communication / don't give a S also.

aircooled said:

My question about the lake pics above was: how does this affect the farming / crops situation?  I don't know how much irrigation they do there, but clearly the Southern area will loose any and the the areas north of the lake may have some issues.

I'd say it's guaranteed.  I saw a video last night from a guy at a large investment very excited about all the profit potential from a shattered grain market.  I'm not sure how people like that sleep at night, but they seem awfully happy.  

An update on ZNPP (the nuke plant):  The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has stated they are aware of reports of mines on the cooling pond, but did not observe any.  They have seen mines inside the plant (this may not be implying inside buildings BTW), but the Russians say those are for defensive purposes....

.....So, if the Ukrainians approach the plant (the NUCLEAR plant) to take it.  Their intention is to SHOOT IT OUT to defend it!!!!   Does this seem like a bad idea to anyone!?!?

Grossi also says that ZNPP plans to resume pumping water, which is still available in the pond and does not yet require the use of a cooling pond.

Not sure what the "pond" is and what the "cooling pond" is.  The one seen in the pictures is generally called the cooling pond, but I guess there is another one that is primarily used?

An assessment of the current situation by ISW (my bolding of the last sentence):

The overall slower than expected pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations is not emblematic of Ukraine’s wider offensive potential, and Ukrainian forces are likely successfully setting conditions for a future main effort despite initial setbacks. Ukrainian officials have long signaled that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would be a series of gradual and sequential offensive actions and have more recently offered the observation that currently ongoing operations do not represent the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive planning.[13] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar emphasized on June 20 that it is not useful to gauge the success of military actions based "solely by kilometers or the number of liberated settlements.”[14] Malyar’s statement echoes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s observation that war is not a ”Hollywood movie” that will deliver immediate and tangible results.[15]

The observation that current Ukrainian operations may have objectives that are not simply territorial is an important one. Ukrainian forces may be conducting several offensive operations across the entire theater in order to gradually attrit Russian forces and set conditions for a future main effort. Losses are inevitable on both sides, but careful operational planning on the Ukrainian side likely seeks to mitigate and balance this reality with the equally important observation that the degradation of Russian manpower is a valuable objective. Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin voiced his concern that Russian forces are suffering major manpower and equipment losses as a result of ongoing Ukrainian attacks, especially in southern Ukraine.[16] The success of Ukrainian counteroffensives should not be judged solely on day-to-day changes in control of terrain, as the wider operational intentions of Ukrainian attacks along the entire frontline may be premised on gradually degrading, exhausting, and expending Russian capabilities in preparation for additional offensive pushes.

Picture of the bridge that was attacked.  Seems like this one is out for a while.

aircooled said:

An update on ZNPP (the nuke plant):  The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has stated they are aware of reports of mines on the cooling pond, but did not observe any.  They have seen mines inside the plant (this may not be implying inside buildings BTW), but the Russians say those are for defensive purposes....

.....So, if the Ukrainians approach the plant (the NUCLEAR plant) to take it.  Their intention is to SHOOT IT OUT to defend it!!!!   Does this seem like a bad idea to anyone!?!?

Grossi also says that ZNPP plans to resume pumping water, which is still available in the pond and does not yet require the use of a cooling pond.

Not sure what the "pond" is and what the "cooling pond" is.  The one seen in the pictures is generally called the cooling pond, but I guess there is another one that is primarily used?

The little square pond is used to maintain the plant in safe shutdown so decay heat from the nuclear fuel doesn't do a Fukushima.  The big one, the reservoir, is needed to run the plant and produce electricity.  They will not be producing electricity for a long time at that site.  If they can't maintain it safely cooled and shutdown bad things happen.  
 

All well designed nuclear plants have a safety cooling water on site (a pond, basin etc) to maintain safe shutdown.    Then they have a much larger cooling source to operate and generate electricity.  Sadly electrical power generation isn't all that efficient.  Most energy goes into heat which requires large cooling capacity.  

aircooled said:

Picture of the bridge that was attacked.  Seems like this one is out for a while.

I donno, here in Atlanta roadwork teams just cover potholes like that with steel plates for everyone to drive over.

In reply to nderwater :

Yeah, that ain't got nothing on the I-80 bridge in Joliet...

atlanta I-85.   Put some steel plate and had it open in 15 minutes.  
(not really)

Prigozhin (Wagner leader) has things to say.  As a note, he IS Russian, but has been in a long standing feud with the Russian army.  Supposedly still a friend of Putin.  He is now claiming one of his units was attacked.  (Translations)

The Ministry of Defense is deceiving the public and telling the story that there was aggression on the part of Ukraine for 8 years, and they were going to attack us together with all of NATO. Ukraine did not attack the civilian population, only the positions of the Russian army

No one killed 60 leopards, this is complete total nonsense, now the Russian army is retreating in the Zaporozhye, Kherson directions, 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are pushing through the Russian army, we are washing ourselves with blood, no one gives reserves, there is no control.

Zelensky, when he became president, was ready for agreements. All that had to be done was to get down from Mount Olympus, go and negotiate with him,

What was the war for? The war was needed for Shoigu to receive a 'hero star'. The oligarchic clan that rules Russia needed the war. The war was needed to install Medvedchuk as president of Ukraine.