Der Spiegel:
The German government believes that the leader of the Wagner PMC, Prigozhin, did not receive the expected support for his rebellion within the country, so he stopped moving towards Moscow.
Der Spiegel:
The German government believes that the leader of the Wagner PMC, Prigozhin, did not receive the expected support for his rebellion within the country, so he stopped moving towards Moscow.
Picture of part of what was the Kakhovka reservoir (created by the dam that was blown).
Hmmmm, I wonder if you could drive a tank across that? Another side effect of the Russian blunder is they have created a much larger area where the Ukrainians can potentially cross the Dnieper river.
In reply to aircooled :
I wouldn't for a while. More than likely, the bottom of that reservoir is many feet of fine sediment. So while it should be able to support a human now, it probably will be some time until the dry area is thick enough to support the weight of heavy vehicles. Maybe around the coasts it will dry faster, with the water draining.
aircooled said:One thing I noticed the other day was that there were reports of large movements of Chechen units from the front towards Rostov. Obviously implying they were the ones that were tasked to deal with the Wagners. I am suspicious they were doing this because regular Russian soldiers may not be as willing to both attack a Russian city or Wagner units. Bonus of course is that when the Wagners start slaughtering them, they are just Chechens.
There are so many layers and nuances in this war, I wonder how anyone can keep track.
After recent attack. No deaths being reported in Dnipro.
One commenter I was listening to had a basis for why the Russians would be attacking the civilian cities. The concept is that if they keep up attacks on cities around Ukraine, the Ukrainians need to keep air defense assets in all those cities. If the air defense is protecting the cities, they cannot protect the front line. The Patriot systems for example are likely deployed to protect the cities where they could be useful zapping Russian air power well behind the lines (electronic warfare issues will adjust the practicality of that of course).
The fact that these attacks kill civilians? Cost of war I guess, and seemed to be one of the things that that was pissing Prigozhin off.
Death toll after debris of Russian missile hit a house in Solomyansky district of Kyiv increased to 5, rescuers still working on the site
Another interesting aspect of the "rebellion" was the number of helicopters (and one aircraft) they seemingly easily shot down. The IL-22 had 10 people on it! (either a airborne command post or more likely ELINT/ jamming plane)
According to Ukraine's Euromaidan Press, three Russian electric warfare helicopters, a Ka-52 helicopter, an Mi-8 helicopter, a transport helicopter and an Il-22 plane were shot down during the mutiny.
Of interest are the three electronic warfare helicopters the Mi-8MTPR-1 Rychag. This is like the one that was shot down by their own air defense a while back. These helicopters are rather rare. The article below says they may have (or did have) 20 of them! This mean, Russian force, have shot down 1/5th of one of their most valuable air assets!
Also of note, these high tech style systems are the one that are the most difficult for the Russians to replace with the trade restrictions.
I suspect Wagner simply shot these down because there where in the area and on station (they had no idea what they were doing). I also suspect, one of the primary things they are doing these days (where they were shot down) is protecting Moscow from drones etc, add to this loosing the IL22 probably doing the same thing....
Before the start of the full-scale invasion, the armed forces of the russian federation had at their disposal only up to 20 helicopters of this modification, which were distributed between the 15th Army Aviation Brigade of the Western Military District, the 16th Army Aviation Brigade of the Southern Military District and the 18th Army Aviation Brigade of the Eastern military district.
I don't know why I thought a war where both sides are Russia was going to accomplish anything.
It accomplishes suffering.... very Russian.
Latest rumor is that the FSB got Pregoshin to give up by threatening his family and his commanders families. Sounds plausible.
At least Russia lost some fairly rare aircraft out of this mess. I'm sure there will be longer term ramifications, but that seems to be the biggest short term gain.
ISW's (generally very well sourced and confirmed information) assessment of "the troubles":
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Russian sources speculated on the specifics of the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s June 23-24 armed rebellion, including the possible involvement of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chief of staff. Russian opposition outlet Meduza, citing unnamed internal Kremlin sources, reported that Prigozhin initially tried to get in touch with the Russian Presidential Administration midday June 24 as Wagner fighters moved north from Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow, but that Putin refused to speak with Prigozhin.[1] Meduza noted that once Prigozhin observed the lack of widespread military support for Wagner’s actions and changed his mind on Wagner’s prospects, the Kremlin turned to negotiations involving Lukashenko, Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Office Anton Vaino, and Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov. Vaino and Gryzlov’s possible involvement was not reported on June 24. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger also questioned whether the deal will hold Wagner or Prigozhin accountable in any way for the deaths of at least 13 Russian airmen on June 24.[2] Prigozhin’s whereabouts cannot be verified beyond his departure from Rostov-on-Don late on June 24. Russian outlet RTVI claimed that Prigozhin’s press service told RTVI that Prigozhin “sends his regards” and will answer all questions “when he is on normal communication,” and a prominent Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel shared an AI-generated image of Prigozhin holding a finger to his lips and stating “plans love silence,” a copy of the phrase commonly used in Ukraine about operational security.[3] As ISW noted on June 24, the specifics of the deal are still unclear in the open source beyond speculation and rumor. The fallout of Wagner’s armed rebellion has not yet concluded, and it remains to be seen how the deal will be implemented, whether all involved parties will comply fully, what the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) intend to do with Wagner personnel, and if Wagner fighters will cooperate - regardless of Prigozhin’s wishes.
Some more analysis, including the assessment that the Wagner units that where pushing towards Moscow would likely be not substantial enough (thus Prigozhin was likely depending on Russian army unit support):
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The implications of the Lukashenko-Prigozhin deal for the leadership of the Russian MoD also remain ambiguous
Wagner forces continued to withdraw from positions in Rostov and on the road to Moscow to their bases on June 25, and the Kremlin’s intended structure for leveraging Wagner fighters remains unclear.
Further details emerged on the composition of the Wagner units approaching Moscow on June 24, indicating Prigozhin would likely have struggled in an active conflict in Moscow without additional support
Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine does not appear to have been substantially impacted by Wagner’s June 23-24 armed rebellion
CNN reported on June 24 that US and Western intelligence officials observed Wagner amassing equipment and ammunition for the rebellion for several weeks, indicating that the columns likely comprised Wagner‘s greatest available strength.
A prominent milblogger asked how Russian authorities will punish those involved in the deaths of Russian servicemen, indicating that clemency for the Wagner fighters that participated in the rebellion may become a longstanding grievance for elements of the Russian military and the ultranationalist community
aircooled said:Latest rumor is that the FSB got Pregoshin to give up by threatening his family and his commanders families. Sounds plausible.
This is so plausible that I would have expected Prigozhin to have stashed his family somewhere safe before starting a coup. Either that or not given a berkeley what happened to them.
MadScientistMatt said:aircooled said:Latest rumor is that the FSB got Pregoshin to give up by threatening his family and his commanders families. Sounds plausible.
This is so plausible that I would have expected Prigozhin to have stashed his family somewhere safe before starting a coup. Either that or not given a berkeley what happened to them.
I'm actually shocked that they weren't already in Switzerland.
aircooled said:Some more analysis, including the assessment that the Wagner units that where pushing towards Moscow would likely be not substantial enough (thus Prigozhin was likely depending on Russian army unit support):
So, I think I have a handle on the theory that the whole thing is a ruse. The idea is Prigozhin builds up his army and pretends to charge towards Moscow and before they get there they make a quick left and head to Belarus to setup for an attack an Kiev from the north.
Interesting idea, but the bulk of the Wagner units appeared to stay in the south. Also, even if it was really the case, it would absolutely not surprise anyone. If they did switch a lot of units into Belarus, the Ukrainians would be well aware of that.
I mean it could be a bit of a Battle of the Bulge last gasp desperate attempt, but seems super unlikely. In the case of the Germans, they were trying to do an unexpected (before satellites and under the cover of bad weather, VERY important with the Allied air superiority) major push to capture the major port of Antwerp and potentially cripple the Allied invasion of Europe. In this case, yet again, try to behead the country by capturing the capital.
Didn't work out so well for the Germans (it was, very much, a surprise though). Ended up likely shortening the war because the Germans committed, and lost, a lot of their best equipment, units, and of course gas (of which they had very serious supply issues late in the war).
mtn said:MadScientistMatt said:aircooled said:Latest rumor is that the FSB got Pregoshin to give up by threatening his family and his commanders families. Sounds plausible.
This is so plausible that I would have expected Prigozhin to have stashed his family somewhere safe before starting a coup. Either that or not given a berkeley what happened to them.
I'm actually shocked that they weren't already in Switzerland.
Would they even be safe there from a Russian assassin?
It's really one of the weirder episodes that I can recall. Putin's goons wouldn't even have to kill Pregoshin's relatives. There are plenty of Russian prisons where the conditions are such that life expectancy is pretty low, whether by assault, disease or exposure to the elements. But that's not news. What the hell happened?
z31maniac said:mtn said:MadScientistMatt said:aircooled said:Latest rumor is that the FSB got Pregoshin to give up by threatening his family and his commanders families. Sounds plausible.
This is so plausible that I would have expected Prigozhin to have stashed his family somewhere safe before starting a coup. Either that or not given a berkeley what happened to them.
I'm actually shocked that they weren't already in Switzerland.
Would they even be safe there from a Russian assassin?
Good question. Probably not.
Per Putin's statement tonight, Wagner fighters uninvolved in the rebellion can either sign contracts with the army or go to Belarus. It's beginning to sound like Wagner will be allowed to continue to operate on foreign soil, but excluded from Russian territory.
In other news, a small contingent of Ukrainian soldiers, probably SF guys, have crossed by small boat at the Antonovskiy Bridge northeast of Kherson and have established a bridgehead. Russian units have called for tac air support in the clear on Telegram, which seems to suggest a fair degree of desperation on their part. If developed into a large scale penetration, this would be very problematic for Russia.
In reply to 02Pilot :
I have wondered if the point for Pregoshin was get get Wagner out of The Ukraine. Wagner isn't getting enough juice for the squeeze, the mo of W is rape terrorize those who can inflict little harm on W classic bully stuff. P begins to believe there isn't enough to be made in this conflict and desires a return to their desired operations of bullying and stealing from those with little ability to fight back.
Some useful perspective on different aspects of the internal Russian situation from Geopolitical Futures and the Asia Times. I don't necessarily agree with all of it, but at least important questions are being addressed.
Anyone know if all those private jets that headed for Turkey returned to Moscow yet?
Some updates on Wagner. There is potential, as noted, the Belarus camp is a bit of "hey you won the lottery, go here to pick up your prize" or "just get on this train so we can re-locate you" kind of thing (!)
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Some Wagner Group forces may follow Prigozhin to Belarus. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on June 26 that Belarusian authorities are constructing several new camps to house the Wagner Group fighters in Belarus and that the construction of a 24,000 square meter base for 8,000 Wagner Group fighters is already underway in Asipovichy, Mogilev Oblast.[7] The location of a Wagner Group base in Asipovichy does not pose an immediate threat against Ukraine; Asipovichy is about 200 kilometers from Belarus’ international border with Ukraine, and the establishment of new Wagner Group bases in Gomel or Brest oblasts on the border with Ukraine would be much more alarming. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may seek to use the Prigozhin and Wagner Group fighters to balance against a longstanding Russian effort to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus, though the extent to which Lukashenko can successfully co-opt Prigozhin or refuse a potential Russian extradition demand for Prigozhin or Wagner fighters in Belarus remains unclear. Prigozhin’s personal whereabouts remain unclear as of June 26, though some unconfirmed reports suggest that he is in the “Green City Hotel” in western Minsk City.[8]
Belarus will not offer Prigozhin or Wagner fighters a true haven if the Kremlin pressures Belarus, however. Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap. The Kremlin will likely regard the Wagner Group personnel who follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them. Putin notably stated in his June 26 speech that Wagner Group fighters are permitted to go to Belarus and that Putin will keep his unspecified “promise” about Wagner fighters who choose to do so.[9] Putin’s acknowledgment that he made a personal promise, presumably that Wagner personnel who went to Belarus would be safe there, was remarkable. The long-term value of that promise, Putin’s speech notwithstanding, is questionable. Wagner Group personnel in Belarus are unlikely to remain safe from Russian extradition orders if Putin reneges and charges them with treason. Lukashenko previously turned over 33 Belarusian-detained Wagner personnel to Moscow after using them as leverage against the Kremlin in 2020, and there is no apparent reason why he would not do so again.[10]
Prigozhin’s efforts to convince Putin of his loyalty clearly failed as Putin characterized the armed rebellion as a blackmail attempt and denounced its organizers as traitors following Prigozhin’s statement
The Kremlin is likely attempting to signal that Shoigu will maintain his position for now and that Putin will not give into Prigozhin’s blackmail attempt.
The future of the Wagner Group is unclear, but it will likely not include Yevgeny Prigozhin and may not continue to exist as a distinct or unitary entity
eastsideTim said:Anyone know if all those private jets that headed for Turkey returned to Moscow yet?
Can't speak to that, but there's an official russian IL-96 landing in DC at about 14:04 local time.
Apparently they are withdrawing diplomats "after completing a 3-year stay": https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1673685276860768256
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