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aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/13/24 10:49 a.m.

On the subject of saboteurs, and another attempt at "bad ass females" (the previous attempt failed, because internet), here is something that speaks to one of the difficulties when taking over someone else's territory:

Female saboteurs who poisoned 46 Russian soldiers in Crimea are on the run after shoot-out with police, say reports

Ukrainian saboteurs who are alleged to have poisoned and killed 46 Russian soldiers are on the run in annexed Crimea after a shoot-out with police, a local report says.

Two young saboteurs who had poisoned members of the Russian military in Simferopol and Bakhchisarai fled when authorities attempted to detain them in Crimea, Telegram channel Kremlin Snuffbox said on Tuesday.

The police went to apprehend the female suspects at a private house in Yalta but were surprised to find them "well armed" and "well prepared," the post said.

The saboteurs opened fire and fled the scene in a car, and authorities do not know their current whereabouts.

Three officers were killed and two were wounded in the shoot-out, a source in Russia's Federal Security Service told the Telegram channel....

https://news.yahoo.com/female-saboteurs-poisoned-46-russian-103910678.html?guccounter=1

 

On the subject of the ever increasing drone wars, which will almost certainly become more and more intense, Ukraine released a video of a small drone tank (lightly armored really) they developed.  This could certainly become a "thing".  As shown previously, the Russians have already used bomb laden tanks, but those may not have been controlled.  There was an analyst who noted that any real offensive are not possible in Ukraine (on either size) because of the massive presence and effect of drones, so maybe the drones do the offensive?

 

Also of note, on another front, it looks like the Taiwanese elections (or Chinese Taipei if your are a Chinese stooge) are going to the Western leaning candidate.  The second place advocates rapprochement with China, but it should be noted that China is obviously HEAVILY trying to influence the election, so those numbers might otherwise be a bit lower, still somewhat concerning.

I don't think O2 pays much attention to this part of the world in his studies(?), but this clearly seems like a very active area of influence and manipulation in geopolitics.

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
1/13/24 12:01 p.m.

I pay attention to Asia not because I specialize in it, but because it's important. China is most assuredly working overtime to influence politics in Taiwan, both by undermining the leadership and trying to replace it with those more favorable to Beijing (you have no idea how hard it is for me to not type "Peking"). The irony in this particular election is that the now-concilliatory  KMT, or Kuomintang, was Chiang-Kai Shek's party that fled the Communist takeover in 1949 and established Taiwan as a base for what they considered the legitimate Chinese government.

As I've noted repeatedly regarding Russia and Ukraine, one cannot look at the election results here without considering the domestic pressures involved. For Taiwan, defense is important to voters, but so are jobs, and one of the promises made by those who favor better relations with the mainland was greater economic opportunity (I don't buy it, but that was the claim). For the Communists, a more separatist Taiwan provides a useful focus for nationalist sentiments, which in turn are very helpful in distracting the increasingly disappointed youth cohort that is unemployed and questioning (quietly) the CCP leadership.

gimpstang
gimpstang Reader
1/13/24 1:02 p.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:


 

And it isn't BS.  Weapons are left behind to terrorists, and given to corruptocrats and I'm just supposed to pay for it?  Berk that.  
 

And I'm supposed to like that you are okay with it?  Pass.  
 

I'm amazed how any thought that goes against the popular narrative is instacensored North Korean style.  Do yes anyone have any thoughts of their own anymore?  Is it even allowable?

A US reporter died in a Ukranian prison and no one cares.....  no surprise.

 

You are free to leave if it bothers you that much.  I hear Ukraine is nice this time of year.

Opti
Opti UltraDork
1/13/24 5:16 p.m.

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Opti
Opti UltraDork
1/13/24 6:20 p.m.

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OHSCrifle
OHSCrifle GRM+ Memberand UberDork
1/13/24 9:40 p.m.

Having an incredible grasp of the obvious is not incredible.

I think spending what, 5 or 10% of our annual military budget to unload and replace mothballed systems and battle test modern systems.. a pretty good use of the budget.

Bonus points when it weakens an adversary and protects allies.

Opti
Opti UltraDork
1/14/24 12:38 a.m.
OHSCrifle said:

Having an incredible grasp of the obvious is not incredible

That may sound right and wise, but its not. I invite you to go back and read the early half of this thread and see how often the obvious was ignored. I counter with a similar phrase, common sense isn't common. It is equally vague and useless here.

I think spending what, 5 or 10% of our annual military budget to unload and replace mothballed systems and battle test modern systems.. a pretty good use of the budget

Good for you. You are entitled to your opinion. Since you mentioned "the obvious," you do realize that is both an oversimplification and mischaracterization of the aid we supply to Ukraine, right? At best it would account for about a third of the aid we've sent.

OHSCrifle
OHSCrifle GRM+ Memberand UberDork
1/14/24 3:16 p.m.

By obvious I mean:

Known corrupt governments aren't magically un-corrupt. The calculus of deciding who and how to support other countries is complex and sadly influenced mostly by dollars not altruism or compassion. 

Ukraine and Russian men's lives are being lost due to [forbidden word redacted] failures on all sides. War is bad. I have two sons age 19 & 23. If we get in WW "next".. they could quickly be in the line of fire. I cannot ignore that reality but I also have no way to influence any change. Voting doesn't help.

The situation in Ukraine is not as simple as Ukraine was prosperous and Russia attacked them for no reason. Or Ukraine wanted to join NATO and Russia didn't want that to happen. Putin did feel provoked and still feels justified. Acknowledged. 

 

...And the numbers I looked up: 

$75 B spent over two years 

$850B budget for one year

Both numbers are a lot of money and I agree accountability in a perfect world would be terrific.

 

 

TL;dr. I have always been history ignorant but I have an interest and have learned a lot in this thread. There is a lot more to learn.

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/14/24 5:38 p.m.
Opti said:
 

To be fair in one sentence you say corruption is almost certain, and in another you say not being able to accurately track weapons doesnt prove corruption and "we" arent reading into the report what it doesnt say....

I think you need to explain this to me more.  How is that statement contradictory?  Also (might answer the first question), how does that report prove corruption?  I believe the report itself says it doesn't.  That is what you are saying, right?

As OHS stated, I would hope most who have read this thread are aware of the threat and history of corruption in Ukraine (I have certainly stated it a few times myself). What is missing is some sort of evidence or proof that it is an issue in the aid sent by the US. 

Maybe to re-state a bit:  Corruption will always be a thing, everywhere, especially during wars (yes, even in the US in WWII) what is most relevant, is HOW much is going on.  I have seen no evidence of any significant corruption regarding US aid in Ukraine.  Doesn't mean it isn't there, doesn't mean it is.  Will the Ukrainians follow their old path (which they were trying to move off of before the war)? Or will the desperate situation of the war and the new government direction keep that at bay? 

Saying I assume it is almost always happening, in at least small way, does not mean I am OK with it BTW (that would be a classic straw man illogical argument), it's just means I am realistic in my expectations of how "people" act.

OHSCrifle
OHSCrifle GRM+ Memberand UberDork
1/14/24 5:56 p.m.

For the record, I'm glad the US Military wasn't the one discovering missiles with fuel tanks filled with water. For all the excessive spending and programs that churn metric craploads of tax dollars - it seems like our corruption is mostly kept in check by watchdog agencies within the gov't. I think.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/14/24 6:04 p.m.

Looks like the Ukrainians are up to something again.  They reportedly hit a Russian  A-50 and Il-32.  The IL-32 apparently made it back to a base damaged, but the A-50 went down.  Not sure how they got them.  Maybe they moved a Patriot?  Maybe something launched from the sea?  Either way, the Russians clearly did not see it coming.  Well, because of the planes, they very much saw the missiles coming, they just clearly did not think they were in danger.  These are planes you keep WELL away from air defense (one of their roles is seeing air defense radars!)

I suspect shenanigans.  They probably did something tricky!

The damaged IL-32 did an emergency landing in Anapa, which is just over the Kerch straight.  If they moved a Patriot near the southern (Zaporizha ) front, the longest range missile would just reach into the Sea of Azov.

From the Ruzzian sources:

The enemy declares the defeat of A-50 and Il-32 of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the skies over the Sea of ​​Azov.

The damaged Il-22 was able to reach the airfield and land, as evidenced by leaked intercepted conversations on an open frequency, but with the A-50, apparently, everything is much sadder.

If the loss of the aircraft is confirmed, it will be a huge loss for domestic aviation, since there are only a few such AWACS aircraft in service and are constantly in short supply at the front.

The Beriev A-50 is basically the Russian version of a AWACS.  This is the same type of plane that was attacked at a Russian airfield a while back.  Clearly a significant loss for the Russians.  Almost certainly a very difficult plane to replace.

undefined

The Il-32 is a maritime patrol aircraft, similar to the US Orion (also a turbo prop, like the Orion, for duration)

undefined

GIRTHQUAKE
GIRTHQUAKE UltraDork
1/14/24 10:45 p.m.

There's no point discussing "corruption" with Opti or Anthony- we've done it before numerous times, we've shown examples of Ukraine cleaning house numerous times, displayed articles of what measured steps they're taking against it. Thing is, there's no easy chart that says "you are no longer corrupt" so it's basically this eternal hill they can plant their flag on to oppose aid. It's tripe.

Anthony also fell for the most recent Russian propaganda, which is that "American Journalist" is Gonzalo Lira- whom was most known for being a sex offender, being apart of the "alpha male" manosphere (which is why he went to Ukraine- they believe it's easy to financially control poorer Eastern European women whom they think have "conventional values"), and most recently transmitting Ukrainian civilian positions to Russia while he lived in the nation which led to his arrest. Supposedly he had pneumonia- which he was/is a chain smoker so that tracks- but the most I can find is just an official statement that he died in captivity and a lot of pro-Russia shills talking about him, including that authoritarian cock holster tucker carlson. I honestly don't really buy it, and of all the people to talk up mythicize- this one? The guy who got into an internet rant with a streamer who uses a pig as his avatar who got excessively drunk because talking to him was such a nightmare?

 

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
1/14/24 11:27 p.m.

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Floating Doc (Forum Supporter)
Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
1/14/24 11:34 p.m.

We must be running a special on straw man rebuttals.

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
1/15/24 12:12 p.m.

On the plane, you can see a large number of holes on the tail.

Unofficial Russian people familiar with the matter say that the plane was allegedly hit by an anti-aircraft missile fired from the Russian side.

**********

This is from https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/rosiyany-pokazaly-poshkodzhenyj-nad-azovskym-morem-yl-22/ and is about the Il-22 that received damage and the A-50 that was shot down.

 

 

stroker
stroker PowerDork
1/16/24 12:23 p.m.

I found this interesting.  The MiG 31 has been around for a very long time.  I'd have expected them to be completely debugged by now...

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/16/24 12:33 p.m.

You think the Mig 31 is bad, it's the improved version of the Mig25!, which was very much a "screw safety, it needs to be fast" kind of plane.  Very Russian though...   

....hey... didn't we used to have more astronauts?   

(Reference to a Russian practice to quite literally "erase" astronauts, in pictures for example, who died in their, less than fully safety conscious, early space program)

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
1/16/24 1:18 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

This piece only touches on some of the Foxbat's, um, idiosyncracies. I read one of official analyses on it after Belenko's defection, which had a lot more detail, but I can't find it right now. It was not a particularly useful aircraft. That the Foxhound is being used as a missile truck is not surprising, since it's not much good at anything else.

 

 

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
1/16/24 2:19 p.m.
02Pilot said:

In reply to aircooled :

This piece only touches on some of the Foxbat's, um, idiosyncracies. I read one of official analyses on it after Belenko's defection, which had a lot more detail, but I can't find it right now. It was not a particularly useful aircraft. That the Foxhound is being used as a missile truck is not surprising, since it's not much good at anything else.

 

 

The Foxbat was absolutely unbeatable in causing the US to develop the F15, though

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
1/16/24 3:35 p.m.
tuna55 said:
02Pilot said:

In reply to aircooled :

This piece only touches on some of the Foxbat's, um, idiosyncracies. I read one of official analyses on it after Belenko's defection, which had a lot more detail, but I can't find it right now. It was not a particularly useful aircraft. That the Foxhound is being used as a missile truck is not surprising, since it's not much good at anything else.

The Foxbat was absolutely unbeatable in causing the US to develop the F15, though

Not exactly what the Russians had in mind, I think.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/16/24 5:16 p.m.

Here is a bit of a tangent that I think 02 will find interesting.  I suspect he already knows a bit about it, but apparently that water in the rockets corruption thing in China may be WAY bigger than assumed, and may have very far reaching effects (they are apparently now purging more than freshman pledge on pledge night!).  One of which may be the removal of any practical threat that China has on Taiwan, which is a good thing.

It also parallels Russia a bit (as mentioned in the video) in that Russia quickly discovered how bad an effect a corrupt system can have on it's millitary's readiness and effectiveness.  Also a similar parallel in the aspect of all the chest puffing China has been doing with it's military as the threat (in Russia's case, actually using it's military) has only hardened it's foes against them, and turned many others away. So now their "thread rod" they where holding over everyone... looks a we bit limp....

It is interesting that these "communist" (not really, but sort of) systems are so ripe with corruption.  You would think authoritarian systems would control that (which is what China is trying to do now), but those sort of systems, by how they work, very much breed it also (what can you do for me?).  China apparently has a huge hill to climb in this case (similar to Russia), in that it is so ingrained, there will be a lot of ass covering and not wanting things exposed (i.e. Russian oligarchs also have little interest in blowing up the system).

Not sure how this relates to Ukraine, as noted, noticeable corruption (at least in US aid) has not been obvious, or uncovered.
 

 

The comments also have an interesting quote, and speaks to what I am talking about when I say "Corruption is always present, it's the extent of it that is critical".  It also speaks to the fact that when you are actually doing it for your country (as in defending it) rather then being forced to... seems to make a difference.  I also suspect having dirt poor, semi-desperate people (as in Russia and China) working with multi-million dollars worth of items, is not a great combination.

I was a supply officer in our Navy, and there was a tiny bit of corruption on a personal level, like "I'll come and knock out those little welding jobs if you can get me a ten pound can of coffee..." We call it comshaw. But every man-jack on the ship was devoted to the mission, and corruption on a larger scale was dealt with swiftly and people lost their jobs and went to prison. I don't know how a communist country could ever hope to install that in its personnel

stroker
stroker PowerDork
1/16/24 5:18 p.m.

I'd love to know what Russian turbines the Iranians are using in their Tomcats, though... 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/16/24 5:23 p.m.

In reply to stroker :

Those planes have long been out of service.  It is the reason why selling any parts for an F-14 is illegal.  You used to be able to see one of them still sitting next to a hanger near Tehran's main airport on Google maps.  I will see if I can locate it again when I have time.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/18/24 4:50 p.m.

Some interesting stuff:  A somewhat popular video is out of a fight between a Bradley and a Russian T-90 tank.

This sight has an easy to access version:  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/ukraine-bradley-fighting-vehicles-disabled-russian-tank/

A not very clear frame from it:

In looking at it and reviewing an analysis on it, it does point out some of the inaccuracies in this kind of reporting.  First of all, it's very unlikely this tank was destroyed.  The explosion you see at the end it almost certainly the smoke rounds mounted on the tank going off (you can see the white smoke it creates).  That said, it's an interesting scene.  It's likely the Bradly is essentially panic firing at the T-90 to avoid it getting a shot on them (probably chanced upon it).  The fire is very accurate, so the crew must be good, but the 25mm shells have essentially zero chance of penetrating the tank.  They are however, almost certainly destroying most everything bolted to the outside of that tank, and certainly blinding the tank crew (why it's good they keep firing).

Those shells hitting the tank has to be VERY unpleasant for the crew in the T-90 though and you have to wonder what their psychological state was after that.  As noted previously "ringing the bell" was a popular tactic with WWII American tank crews against the bigger German tanks (which the American Sherman's had little chance to penetrate).  You bounce a bunch of shells off their turret and if the crew isn't well battle hardened, they are likely to bail out of what is a perfectly functional tank!  I would guess, after the smoke rounds went off, the Bradly bugged out of there as fast as it could!  (perhaps setup for a TOW missile shot).

------

Another story running around is riots in Bashkortostan (one of the essentially non-Russia rebublics Russia controls).  The riots are not really any evidence of an uprising against Putin, but does show unrest.  The basic reason for it seems to be the jailing of a particularly popular leader for "inciting ethnic hatred", though he was primarily arrested for organizing a protest against (and stopping) the building of a gold mine in the area.  Not clear if they want to avoid the environmental disaster that that will create, or it's the stealing of resources(?)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/17/hundreds-of-protesters-clash-with-police-in-russian-republic-of-bashkortostan

I did check Russia Today to see what they have to say about, but I cannot find it on their site!!  Strange.  I am sure they are an excellent choice for other un-biased reporting though....

eastsideTim
eastsideTim UltimaDork
1/18/24 5:13 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

I think there is a longer video out there that shows it was likely the Bradley messed up the turret's traversing system, and the crew crashed the T-90 into a tree and bailed out.  Drone may have finished off the tank afterwards.

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