Ha Ha!! Oh that is funny .
Oh, you were serious about Russian automated targeting systems being able to decide not to attack a decoy?
That sounds highly improbable.
Ha Ha!! Oh that is funny .
Oh, you were serious about Russian automated targeting systems being able to decide not to attack a decoy?
That sounds highly improbable.
Wasn't there a story from WWII where one side made a bunch of fake wooden airplanes so the other side dropped a fake wooden bomb at them?
Pete. (l33t FS) said:Wasn't there a story from WWII where one side made a bunch of fake wooden airplanes so the other side dropped a fake wooden bomb at them?
Yep:
TurnerX19 said:In reply to GameboyRMH :
Inflatables worked in WW2, but I should think modern systems would be able to detect the lack of mass within the visual target.
Nope, nobody's close to detecting mass at a distance on such a small scale yet, the best they can do is check for a plausible thermal and radar signature, which is easy enough to fake with the right coatings on the inflatables.
There are side scanning type radars (I think the RivetJoint planes have them) that can pickup vehicles and such, so I am sure they would see planes. There is an issue of range, and I am not sure Russia even has any such planes (I don't think so?). Also, I think those are more doppler based, so may not pick up non-moving targets well. As you can imagine, distinguishing a well house from an F16 at extreme ranges could be pretty difficult. Putting some metal strips in the balloon could certainly be a thing also (lots of measure/ counter measure possibilities here).
Russia does have satellites, but I think thermal would be about as good as they could do for finding real aircraft.... and there is such a thing as hot air balloons! 
(I am sure they could put some sort of heat source in them if they really wanted to). It would be kind of funny to have the airbase just packed full of Inflatofalcons though!
The current Russian tactic seems to be long range reconnaissance drones, which if close enough, and with a good enough camera, might be able to tell the difference. I suspect (hope) the airfield would have significant EW protection to prevent the transmission back, but?
An affect the F16's might have is to concentrate Russian efforts in that direction (as noted more for propaganda value than actual military value) and defect some of the their (maybe not so accidental) residential / hospital attacks.
Kind of wandering here, but in Gameboy's link above.... 
Also from the same link (more relevant):
In reply to aircooled :
That will fool a good visual drone almost within insect net capture of the drone. The drone could knife attack cheaply to duplicate Wood For Wood.
What about putting the F16s towards the west just close enough that the Russians think they have a chance of hitting them? Russia starts coordinated attacks, Ukraine shoots them down en route, and Ukraine also has the opportunity to hit some of the launching sites that have moved closer to the border.
Putting heat sources into inflatables is a standard add-on.
I've looked into them as a substitute for boring bounce houses...
In reply to P3PPY :
It is the only way to make them work at Christmas in my climate. The air density changes so much and often that they self deflate without rupture.
In reply to TurnerX19 :
Could make for an interesting potential future book: "How Holiday Decoration Technology Helped Lead to Victory"
Here is an interesting statement on both the Russian attitude towards the F16's and Russian blustering:
Russian milbloggers responded to the arrival of F-16s by trying to downplay their potential battlefield effects—directly undermining Russian information operations intended to frame the delivery of F-16s and other Western weapons systems as an uncrossable "red line." Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Western and Ukrainian media are "overhyping" the arrival of F-16s in order to distract from battlefield failures, and many milbloggers turned to immediately discussing how Russian forces will begin targeting and destroying the aircraft.[10] Russian information space commentators and officials have frequently claimed that the delivery of Western weaponry to Ukraine constitutes a red line, that if crossed, will force Russia into an escalatory response.[11] Russia has repeatedly proven, however, that the invocation of supposed "red lines" is a reflexive control technique intended to force the West into self-deterring against providing Ukraine with additional military aid.[12] Western and Ukrainian policies have crossed Russia's self-defined "red lines" multiple times since the beginning of the war without drawing a significant Russian reaction, which Russian milblogger comments suggest will prove to be the case with Russia's response to F-16s.
A perspective on the attacks on Russian airbases by Forbes. This of course brings up the concept that the reluctance of the US to "escalate" (see blustering above) is having some very noticable effects (and obviously potentially costing Ukrainian lives):
Ukraine Had A Chance To Blow Up Russia’s Best Warplanes On The Tarmac. The White House Said No—And Now It’s Too Late.
Ukraine is still hitting Russian airfields, but only with less destructive drones.
For months, Ukrainian officials have been begging their foreign allies for permission to use the best donated weaponry—in particular, powerful ballistic missiles—to hit Russian warplanes that have been parking out in the open at airfields inside Russia within quick flying time of Ukrainian cities.
For months, those allies have demurred, citing the risk of escalation as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its 29th month.
Clearly growing impatient, Ukrainian forces have stepped up their attacks on the most vulnerable Russian airfields—strictly deploying Ukrainian-made munitions. On Saturday, Ukrainian drones targeted Morozovsk air base in southern Russia 200 miles from the front line in eastern Ukraine.....
In reply to aircooled :
Perspective matters here. Imagine if in 1965, in response to Rolling Thunder, the Soviets had given North Vietnam weapons of sufficient range to target US airbases in Thailand (let's say SCUDs with conventional warheads), but stipulated that they could only be used inside Vietnam. Would the NV leadership have wanted to hit Korat and Nakhon Phanom and taken out the fighter-bombers based there? Sure, but consider who the US would have blamed for the attack: not the North Vietnamese, but the Soviets, who provided the weapons and authorized their use against US forces outside of the combat zone. If the North did it on their own, well, that's their prerogative, but if the Soviets colluded with them, it would have been seen as a provocation and perhaps an escalation. Was the Soviet Union trying to escalate the conflict, and what were the risks if they were but the US thought they were not? Could the US afford to dismiss the potential of escalation? On the flip side, did the Soviets want to risk US retaliation, which could have been anything from targeting Hanoi and Haiphong, possibly killing Soviet advisors, to broader efforts like increasing US strategic nuclear forces in Europe and assuming a more active role in trying to roll back Communism in Eastern Europe? And that's just US forces in a third country - imagine the uproar and calls for World War 3 if the North Vietnamese were empowered to hit US soil.
Sometimes playing it safe has more to do with what could happen rather than what is happening. Are the Russians using this to their advantage? Of course they are. But their bluffing is a double-edged sword; while they haven't followed through on their threats yet, the more they feel the pressure of Western assistance impacting their chances of success in Ukraine, and particularly inflicting damage on Russian soil, the greater the chance that their response will be significant and destabilizing, when and if it comes.
I thought it would be interesting to see the result of the great Russian summer offensive at this point. I heard someone mention that the Ukrainians are in state of steady defeats. I don't know what the total of losses are for the Russians for this summer, but guaranteed it is huge. And this is what they ended up with (from April 1 to now). The northern gains are pretty tenuous, and the Russian separatist brigades just made another pretty significant incursion in the Sumy area (north of map below). They will likely withdraw at some point, but this was an area that another Russian offensive was expected.
If you could do that math, at this rate, maybe 50 years to take over Ukraine? With supply / reserves issues expected next year for the Russians....
Today there was an incursion into the Kursk People's Republic by reportedly the 22nd Mechanized brigade ☀️ and the Russian Volunteer Corps🗡along with multiple other units with the reported objective of starting a new front
As reported by a russia milblogger:
"According to the generalized data of all open sources, the enemy forces, concentrated for the invasion, amounted to several thousand people (including artillerymen and UAV operators in the Sumy region) and dozens of armored vehicles, a couple of SAM systems, several DRGs with MANPADS for ambushing our aviation, footage of the helicopter crash is already being distributed by the enemy. Elite brigades with Bradleys in service were allocated for the invasion. The enemy paid special attention to electronic warfare and evacuation groups, which, as in the spring in the Belgorod region”
EDIT: Looks like the mainstream media have started to report on Aircooled post above..
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/07/europe/russia-ukrainian-troops-cross-border-intl/index.html
Yup, seems like they have made pretty good progress also.
Russian channel Two Majors reports that reports indicate that the city of Sudzha is under operational encirclement by Ukrainian forces. A tank is directly targeting the border department.
For perspective, this is where this is happening (my highlights, same general area as before). Northern boarder, Kyiv can be seen in the left part of the map (the green areas are where the Russians advanced into in the initial invasion). Sudzha is about where that red square is (so the marking is likely rather conservative)
The Russians seem highly offended that anyone would dare invade Russian territory, how rude. Who would do such a thing!
“Moscow calls on the international community not to stand aside and condemn the criminal actions of the Kyiv regime,” — Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova
"Everything that happened in the Kursk region is a massive provocation by Kyiv, which is conducting indiscriminate shooting with various types of weapons," - Putin at a meeting of the Security Council
I am sure some of the absurdity of the last comment is a translation issue, but it does sound a bit childish.
Putin called it a"large scale provocation". What a wanker
To long, read anyway. Shortened version from ISW.
Key Takeaways:
Some more info (some of this is not entirely confirmed):
- One of reasons why this is significant is apparently it is pretty clear there are actual Ukrainian military forces involved, not just the Russian volunteer group that normally does these. The Russians are claiming there are still 1000's of Ukrainians in reserve, ready to join the fight.
- A pretty coordinated attack. It is mechanized, but no armor so far. Drones are being used to hit reinforcements etc. Reinforcement routes have been mined remotely with artillery. A reasonably significant effort, considering.
- The Russian units in this area, despite numerous incursions of this type, still appear to have minimal defensive structures and are manned by minimally trained conscripts. The result of this is apparently a number of prisoners, and generally poor moral behavior by the Russians (e.g. running away). Of note is the units close to these also tend to be of the poor quality (the failed attack on Kharkiv).
- The Russian's reference to "indiscriminate shooting" might be the result of the Ukrainians taking "civilians" as prisoners. Of course, they aren't civilians, they are Russian army soldiers who have tried to hide in the civilian population (this issue may sound familiar to some). This also might be in reference to the civilian looses that will almost certainly result when Russia glide bombs it's own cities.
- One of the drones used apparently was able to hit a Mi-28 attack helicopter, which I think is a first. By the looks of the last frame from the drone, it looks like it hit the tail rotor (always a weak spot for helicopters). The Russians reportably lost another helicopter also.
As you may have picked up, this is technically (if the info is correct, and Ukraine is staying very quite on this) an invasion of Russia by Ukraine. Shocking I know. How can the world allow this! Perhaps the UN security council needs to get involved! 
This of course has the normal effect of drawing resources from other areas, the propaganda effects (this is directly towards Moscow), AND, if they are actually able to hold some of this ground, this is something Russia would almost certainly REALLY want back (for propaganda purposes if nothing else) and could be very useful in any negotiations.
*NOT SPAM*
Meet Cougars in your area!
Ok, maybe not...
https://mil.in.ua/uk/articles/zahyst-vid-obstriliv-ta-min-amerykanskyj-bronovanyj-cougar-v-zsu/
Forbes take on the "invasion":
Yesterday, Ukraine Invaded Russia. Today, The Ukrainians Marched Nearly 10 Miles. Whatever Kyiv Aims To Achieve, It’s Taking A Huge Risk.
Ukrainian commanders have deployed their last few spare troops across the border into Russia.
....Yesterday, elements of at least two Ukrainian army brigades—apparently not including pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters, as we initially reported—exploited a gap in the defenses around the village of Sudzha, in Kursk Oblast on the Russian side of Ukraine’s northern border.
A day later, hundreds of Ukrainian troops from (at least) the 22nd and 88th Mechanized Brigades supported by artillery, drones and air defenses have marched nearly 10 miles into southern Russia, routing local Russian forces and capturing Sudzha along with several other villages...
A map from ISW:
I have to assume this is diversionary. The road network into the affected area is sparse, and I suspect the Ukrainians want to draw forces in from other sectors, and hit them while they're on the move; much easier than trying to root them out.
Trying to hold this territory, however valuable it might be for propaganda or negotiation purposes, would be costly, unless of course the Ukrainians are already planning to engage with Russia in talks in the near-term and want to buy an edge going in. The Russians can stall indefinitely, however, so this seems unlikely.
With russias only fighting skill being to flatten contested cities, it does beg the question of how they would take back cities in their own country? I'm sure the residents would not mind since it IS for the motherland. Interesting.
In reply to NOHOME :
There is already a guess that the Russian have declared one of the towns evacuated, even though realistically that is almost impossible, likely so they can bomb it flat then later claim the Ukrainians killed the civilians.
The Ukrainians continue to exploit the breakout and are now even using helicopters. The Russians are apparently rushing to assemble response units and are sporadically glide bombing the area. There is also a rumor of another area of Ukrainian troop concentrations somewhere near Kharkiv (which might be where the responce forces are coming from) that might try another breakthrough.
This does seem to very much speak to the concept that the Russian might be running very thin on resources in areas they are not concentrating on. It's certainly too soon for this to be a distraction for some other action involving F16's, but you have to wonder if there is another secret "punch" coming up somewhere else also.
There is a Wikipedia page on this that seems to be updated at least daily: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion
8 August
RIA Novosti reported that four people died as a result of 'attacks' by the AFU in the oblast[28] as fighting continued for a third day.[29][30] Russian milbloggers claimed that "Sudzha is basically lost to us" and that Ukrainian forces were pushing towards Lgov.[31]
The attack reportedly pushed up gas prices to EUR 40 (+5%) per megawatt-hour in Kursk Oblast, where the Sudzha gas hub is located.[28]
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