So, my full name is Nicholas James Dixon IV. Yes, the fourth in my line (and likely last). A weird fact is that both Nicholas James Dixon I and Nicholas James Dixon II passed away on January 4th. So every year on the 4th, I always get a little worried for the safety of me and my father. Superstitious? Maybe a little. But it is odd.
Good luck!
It's probably nothing...I'd be careful today anyway, dude.
If you calculate the likelihood of that occurrence you would probably find out that it's not as odd as you think.
You definitely probably might not die. I wouldn't be that worried
Maybe the third time was the charm and you and your dad are safe.
The odds of any two people dying on the same day of the year are about 1 in 365. Since there's no known mechanism by which people might share (natural/health-related) death dates, the odds are the same of your grandfather and great-grandfather dying on the same day of the year as if it were any 2 random people. If you had a big dataset of father and son death dates, the odds of them aligning should come out around the same.
What a weird coincidence. Unless it was a murder-suicide, then it makes perfect sense.
My birthday is also January 6th, so when my grandfather passed away, that meant I got to spend my entire birthday at a funeral. Likely the worst birthday ever.
Good luck. Sounds like a good excuse to take the day off.
Now if there was a life insurance check depositing correlation too, then I might be nervous.
Makes perfect sense...staring down the barrel of yet another year of life in the throes of winter; who would not throw in the towel early in the new year!
Oh man... Statistics are always so nonintuitive.
As noted above, the odds of I and II sharing a day are 1 in 365. But I *think* the odds of you or your father sharing that date is 1 in (365 * 365 = 133,225). But now I'm foggy on how we look at these things... Each coin flip is always 50% heads vs tails, no matter what the previous flip was. Or, the date of your demise is always a 1:365, er, 1:364.75 (leap years) selection, but we've already completed a 1:364.75 chance to align I and II...
I think it might be that having already happened, it's a 1:364.75 chance (I think the odds would be different if it were February 29) for each of you and your dad, and a 1:~133,043 for *both* of you.
I have grave misgivings about my years-ago statistics prof seeing this stab at it.
Feels a bit macabre discussing your family's passings like this.
Ransom said:Oh man... Statistics are always so nonintuitive.
As noted above, the odds of I and II sharing a day are 1 in 365. But I *think* the odds of you or your father sharing that date is 1 in (365 * 365 = 133,225). But now I'm foggy on how we look at these things... Each coin flip is always 50% heads vs tails, no matter what the previous flip was. Or, the date of your demise is always a 1:365, er, 1:364.75 (leap years) selection, but we've already completed a 1:364.75 chance to align I and II...
I think it might be that having already happened, it's a 1:364.75 chance (I think the odds would be different if it were February 29) for each of you and your dad, and a 1:~133,043 for *both* of you.
I have grave misgivings about my years-ago statistics prof seeing this stab at it.
Feels a bit macabre discussing your family's passings like this.
NickD just died of a brain aneurysm from trying to understand what you told him. The prophecy is fulfilled
gearheadmb said:What a weird coincidence. Unless it was a murder-suicide, then it makes perfect sense.
You have an interesting mind, sir.
Ransom said:Oh man... Statistics are always so nonintuitive.
As noted above, the odds of I and II sharing a day are 1 in 365. But I *think* the odds of you or your father sharing that date is 1 in (365 * 365 = 133,225). But now I'm foggy on how we look at these things... Each coin flip is always 50% heads vs tails, no matter what the previous flip was. Or, the date of your demise is always a 1:365, er, 1:364.75 (leap years) selection, but we've already completed a 1:364.75 chance to align I and II...
I think it might be that having already happened, it's a 1:364.75 chance (I think the odds would be different if it were February 29) for each of you and your dad, and a 1:~133,043 for *both* of you.
I have grave misgivings about my years-ago statistics prof seeing this stab at it.
Feels a bit macabre discussing your family's passings like this.
What you're not accounting for is weirdness. There is a spike of deaths in the first week of January, so the odds of dying that week are greater than 1/52. The first week of January is the worst.
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Science/story?id=990641
https://www.statisticbrain.com/months-with-the-highest-death-rate/
Ransom said:Oh man... Statistics are always so nonintuitive.
As noted above, the odds of I and II sharing a day are 1 in 365. But I *think* the odds of you or your father sharing that date is 1 in (365 * 365 = 133,225).
Actually, the odds of I dying on any given day are 1 in 365. The odds of II also passing away on that same day are 1 in 133,225. The odds of I, II, and III or IV leaving us on the same day are 365^3 or 1 in 48,627,125.
This is, of course, ignoring Leap Year days.
Duke said:Actually, the odds of I dying on any given day are 1 in 365. The odds of II also passing away on that same day are 1 in 133,225. The odds of I, II, and III or IV leaving us on the same day are 365^3 or 1 in 48,627,125.
This is, of course, ignoring Leap Year days.
Wrong, unless NickD's great grandfather was a magical being who could only be killed on one specific but unknown day of the year and he battled deadly magical foes every day, the odds of him dying on some day of the year are 1 in 1 
if it makes you feel less odd, I have 5 relatives (including my father and his father) who passed at the age of 47.
That will be the year I double down on doctors visits and perhaps take a break from some of my riskier and more fun hobbies.
GameboyRMH said:Duke said:Actually, the odds of I dying on any given day are 1 in 365. The odds of II also passing away on that same day are 1 in 133,225. The odds of I, II, and III or IV leaving us on the same day are 365^3 or 1 in 48,627,125.
This is, of course, ignoring Leap Year days.
Wrong, unless NickD's great grandfather was a magical being who could only be killed on one specific but unknown day of the year and he battled deadly magical foes every day, the odds of him dying on some day of the year are 1 in 1
By all accounts he was not. He was a brutal, unforgiving man who had high expectations of his children and took it out of them if they didn't match up. Moreso than the typical late 1800s/early 1900s adult.
Good luck, we're all rooting for you!
GameboyRMH said:Duke said:Actually, the odds of I dying on any given day are 1 in 365. The odds of II also passing away on that same day are 1 in 133,225. The odds of I, II, and III or IV leaving us on the same day are 365^3 or 1 in 48,627,125.
This is, of course, ignoring Leap Year days.
Wrong, unless NickD's great grandfather was a magical being who could only be killed on one specific but unknown day of the year and he battled deadly magical foes every day, the odds of him dying on some day of the year are 1 in 1
While your odds of dying on a specific day in a given year are indeed 1 in 365, there is no guarantee as to which year your demise will be met. This is how life insurance people make their money, by betting that the healthy 35 year old will be around for another 40 years to pay premiums. So while the odds continue to get worse and worse year right now your chances of dying on a specific day of the year are 1 in (365x40=14,600). Next year it'll be more like 1 in (365x39=14,235).
I think you're safe.
A co-worker asked if he could catch a ride with me to lunch. I warned him about today's significance and that he could be collateral damage when fate tried to wipe me out. He seemed only a little concerned. On the way back to the shop, a car turned left at an intersection and we had to avoid it. He seemed a little freaked out at that point, even more so when he he realized it had been his sister who had nearly acted as an agent of fate.
"Agents of fate" would be a great ska band name.
GameboyRMH said:Duke said:Actually, the odds of I dying on any given day are 1 in 365. The odds of II also passing away on that same day are 1 in 133,225. The odds of I, II, and III or IV leaving us on the same day are 365^3 or 1 in 48,627,125.
This is, of course, ignoring Leap Year days.
Wrong, unless NickD's great grandfather was a magical being who could only be killed on one specific but unknown day of the year and he battled deadly magical foes every day, the odds of him dying on some day of the year are 1 in 1
Hahahaha, you're right, of course. My post gives the odds of them dying on, specifically, January 4th. Your original post gives the correct odds for II dying on the same random day as his father did...
...but, if he can only be killed on a specific day and he battles deadly magical foes every day as emphasized above, his odds of dying on that particular day are still 1 to 1 (assuming his foes are undefeatable when he is vulnerable). I'm glad to have provided the assist for your little fantasy epic, here.
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