History in the making, Part 2, V.2 - Israel/Palestine - NO RELIGION

Israel continues to capture territory and continue to find large amounts of weapons, missile launchers and tunnels etc.  Considering the amount of equipment and installations the Israelis are finding / capturing, there is essentially zero motivation for them to stop until they have controlled / searched the entire territory.

The Paratroopers Brigade operated over the past week in the Zaytun and Shejaiya areas in the heart of Gaza City. The soldiers eliminated terrorists, apprehended terrorists for interrogations, uncovered underground tunnels and destroyed four main underground tunnel networks. During searches in the areas and the residences of Hamas operatives, soldiers of the 7421st Battalion found ready-to-launch Grad missiles, hundreds of explosive devices, dozens of weapons, and a lathe used to produce rockets. Additionally, soldiers of the 202nd Battalion discovered several memory cards containing materials filmed by Hamas terrorists on Saturday, October 7th.

Israel is releasing various videos of Hamas capturing and taking aid shipments in Gaza and beating civilians who try to get to it.  This is a pic from a video of a truck they capture (a large crowd is following it) and beat the civilians trying to get to it.  They of course could be taking it so it can be equitably be distributed.... highly unlikely... but possible.

The burning Norwegian tanker "Strinda" in the Red Sea, hit by an anti-ship missile from the Shiite Ansar Allah movement (Houthis).

According to preliminary data, the crew was not injured, but the resulting fire could not be extinguished for several hours. The tanker was assisted by an American destroyer.

The Houthis have previously warned that they would attack ships heading to Israeli ports.

"Houthis" of course means "Iranian":

Interesting history of how Hamas came to be.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/10/was-hamas-elected-to-govern-gaza-george-w-bush-2006-palestinian-election.html

In reply to bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) :

Sometimes, when you give people the option to vote for what they want.... they vote for what they want.

aircooled said:

In reply to bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) :

Sometimes, when you give people the option to vote for what they want.... they vote for what they want.

But as mentioned, this vote was before many Palestinians were born. And somehow I feel Hamas was not going to wait for democracy anyway....

Oh yeah, it's just FAR worse now (as far as support for Hamas), because of that (as noted in the article, bathed in Hamas propaganda).  And yes, Hamas is not exactly the "democracy" type of organization.  They did rather quickly, literally, slaughter their opposition once they got in power (who BTW, are the group that currently runs the West Bank).  Literally (as in knives and bullets), silencing of any opposition is just standard procedure.

Would Gaza vote for Hamas if they had an election now?  Hard to say.  I suspect it depends allot on who they blame for the current situation. They are of course very heavily feed information that it's all Israel of course but there are also signs some blame Hamas (as Hamas looses their grip on them).  This is where I think other Arab nations could be helpful.  Most Palestinians are very unlikely to believe much of anything Israel says, no matter how compelling, of the evidence presented.

It also should be noted (not sure it was in the article) that one of the prime motivations behind the formation of Hamas (and one of it's original primary goals) was the prevention of any two state solution (which was being negotiated on at the time of their rise).  So, the concept that there would be a cease fire, and a negotiated peace, that involves a two state solution, while Hamas still exists, is pretty absurd on it's face.  They just really want to kill Jews.  It's their thing.

Israel's ambassador to the UK rejects a two-state solution: "Absolutely no....The Palestinians never wanted to have a state next to Israel"

The US and UK have also started issuing visa restrictions on Jewish settlers in the West Bank who have been identified as taking violent actions against Palestinians. This is basically signaling to Israel, as few if any of those settlers were likely to travel to the US/UK any time soon. Much as in Ukraine, Israel's Western supporters are trying to shape the situation in ways that do not undermine their allies respective positions; unlike Ukraine, however, Israel has the capability to defy Western expectations for enough time to achieve its objectives. There are international costs to doing so, of course, but the Israeli government has serious domestic issues it is trying to manage, and these can be deferred as long as the conflict is ongoing.

You thought the Palestinian civilians have it bad.  It looks like their leaders are now fleeing their luxury apartments and hotels in Qatar.   Where did all that money for those hotels come from you ask.....

Hamas Leaders Have Abruptly Fled Qatar, Turning Off Phones: Report

The moves come after Israel pledged to track down and kill senior members of the terror group around the world

Top Hamas leaders have reportedly left their luxury safe haven in Doha, the Qatari capital, according to a report from Israel’s KAN state radio’s Arabic Service.

The terror chieftains may be headed to Algiers or Tehran to evade capture or assassination at the hands of Israel.

The moves come after Israel pledged to track down and kill senior Hamas leaders around the world, and follow a request U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made in October to Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Thani to uproot the terror group's leadership from his country.

KAN reported that the men left hurriedly and switched off or disconnected their mobile phones, presumably to help obfuscate their movements.

Top Hamas leaders including Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s political chief, and former head Khaled Meshaal have been living in luxury in Doha while Israel wages a brutal and bloody war in Gaza, where Hamas rules.......

https://themessenger.com/news/hamas-leaders-flee-qatar-israeli-assassination-plan

I really, seriously wonder why the heck  Israel made that announcement. Seems to me it woulda been a bit more effective to just go find em rather than give advance notice. Was it just to flush em out? 

Jay_W said:

I really, seriously wonder why the heck  Israel made that announcement. Seems to me it woulda been a bit more effective to just go find em rather than give advance notice. Was it just to flush em out? 

Could have just been a political statement and the intelligence agencies just have to deal with any obstacles it causes, or it could have been to flush them out, or a combination of both.

It could be as simple as Israel not wanting to take them out in Qatar to maintain relations between the two countries. The fastest way to get them to relocate is to tell them their death is authorized and imminent.  

If you knew Mossad had your picture on their wall with a kill-on-sight order, what would you do? I damn sure wouldn't stay home. 

As you probably heard, a bit of a strange situation where the IDF shot 3 Israeli hostages that managed to escape from Hamas in northern Gaza (either escaped, or captures where killed....).   I suspect one angle on this is that the IDF is so "civilian kill happy" that they even kill civilians waving white flags. The reality is likely more that the tactics that Hamas has been using, which are absurdly against any common laws/practices of war, make this rather likely. Most of the fighters the IDF run into are very much in civilian clothes, and they have been know to use women and children as scouts and / or to draw them into ambushes (and example of which is shown below)

Waving a white flag to get close enough to IDF forces to blow them up is certainly something that is not hard to believe.  I would even suspect, since the IDF will certainly be more careful about it now, they might use it (more?).

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-hostages-killed-mistakenly-gaza-were-holding-white-flag-official-says-2023-12-16/

Israeli hostages killed in Gaza were holding white flag, official says

JERUSALEM, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Three Israeli hostages killed mistakenly in Gaza by Israeli forces had been holding up a white flag, a military official said on Saturday, citing an initial inquiry into the incident that has shaken the country.

A soldier saw the hostages emerging tens of metres from Israeli forces on Friday in Shejaiya, an area of intense combat in northern Gaza where Hamas militants operate in civilian attire and use deception tactics, the official said.

"They're all without shirts and they have a stick with a white cloth on it. The soldier feels threatened and opens fire. He declares that they're terrorists. They (the Israeli forces) open fire. Two (hostages) are killed immediately," the official told reporters in a phone briefing.

The third hostage was wounded and retreated into a nearby building where he called for help in Hebrew, the official said....

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-hostages-killed-mistakenly-gaza-were-holding-white-flag-official-says-2023-12-16/

Hamas terrorists attempted a deceptive ambush against IDF soldiers, using dolls connected to speakers emitting cries, strategically placed in an explosives-rigged zone. These items, including children's backpacks, were near a tunnel entrance leading to a vast network under civilian areas, including a school and clinic.

IDF forces successfully uncovered this trap, revealing hidden Hamas intelligence and anti-tank positions. Their vigilance thwarted a potential catastrophe in a densely populated area

A map of attacks by Houti rebels in the Red Sea.  Clearly this is something that demands some sort of aggressive response.  Doing nothing just encourages more of these "free shots".

Israel is responding:

Israel sends new, advanced Sa’ar 6 warship to Red Sea

The ship enters a hostile area where drones and missiles fired by the Houthi group in Yemen have targeted commercial vessels and southern Israeli city.

JERUSALEM — One of Israel’s new Sa’ar 6 corvettes has been deployed to the Red Sea, where it’s anchored off the Israeli port of Eilat, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.

The announcement on Tuesday follows increased threats from the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthis, which the US says are supported by Iran, have vowed to attack any Israel-bound commercial ship transiting the Red Sea as part of their support for Hamas in Gaza in the wake of Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7....

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/12/israel-sends-new-advanced-saar-6-warship-to-red-sea/

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the start of the "Prosperity Guardian" operation against the Houthis

The minister announced this during his visit to Israel.

The recent escalation of reckless Houthi attacks from Yemen threatens the free flow of trade, endangers innocent seafarers and violates international law. The Red Sea is a critical waterway critical to freedom of navigation and a major commercial corridor facilitating international trade. <...> This is an international challenge that requires collective action. That's why today I'm announcing the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a major new multinational security initiative under the auspices of the Joint Naval Forces and led by Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea.
- says the press release of the Pentagon.

The operation unites many countries, including Great Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. Some of the countries will conduct joint patrols, while others will provide intelligence support in the southern part of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3621110/statement-from-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-on-ensuring-freedom-of-n/

The Houthi reaction:

Through your stupidity you will find out who Yemen is.

Yemen has long-range ballistic missiles that could wipe out Bahrain in an instant.

War will soon cover all parts of this unfortunate Earth.

Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli ground forces advanced into the northern Gaza Strip on October 27.[1] Israeli clearing operations have relied on ground, air, and naval forces to destroy Hamas’ military infrastructure, namely its tunnel system and command structure.[2] Palestinian militia fighters have clashed with Israeli forces in virtually all neighborhoods of the northern Gaza Strip since October 27.[3] The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF has killed between 6,000 and 7,000 Palestinian militia fighters since the war began. Operations in the northern Gaza Strip likely resulted in most of the deaths.[4] CTP-ISW defines “degrade” as a temporary effect whereby a unit’s losses seriously impede its ability to continue executing assigned missions while the unit remains able to operate.[5]

Israeli forces are engaged in intense fighting against Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion the Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza city.[6] A commander in the IDF noted that Shujaiya “was and still is an established stronghold” of Hamas. Palestinian militia fighters have attacked Israeli forces throughout clearing operations in Shujaiya using a variety of munitions, such as explosively formed penetrators and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) to resist Israeli advances.[7] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on December 18 that its forces had captured and destroyed a central square in Shujaiya.[8] CTP-ISW has reported that the Shujaiya Battalion is also facing active and intense IDF pressure as Israel takes out its infrastructure and command structure.[9]

Commercially available satellite imagery captured on December 18 shows flattened terrain throughout Shujaiya neighborhood and Jabalia city, which indicates that Israeli tanks or bulldozers have been actively operating there since early December. Israel identified Jabalia and Shujaiya as targets for Israeli clearing operations.[10] Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on December 11 that Hamas’ Jabalia and Shujaiya Battalions are “on the verge of being dismantled.”[11]

A pretty good (fairly short) Frontline about the failure of the Israeli's protective wall.

It also should be noted, that defensive walls and fortifications, militarily, are not generally intended to be impenetrable.  Their primary purpose is to greatly slow down advances and/or to funnel adversaries to particular areas, or cause them to bunch up where they do attack.  The wall in this case, generally did that, but clearly there where other, much bigger failures (such as responding quickly to failures).

One slightly "funny" comment they make is a reference to the wall, and how the Gazans resented it... uhm, yeah, what, are they insulted that the Israeli's would wall them in like animals?  I know what will shown them, we will act like the most horrific animals we can think of, just to show them how wrong they are!?!?!

(note, there are no shots of the massacre in the video)

An obviously unfortunate, but interesting event.  This of course piles on with the videos of Hamas beating and shooting at civilians trying to get to aid and aid trucks:

A Hamas security official shot and killed a fifteen-year-old Palestinian boy at an aid distribution site in Rafah on December 24, demonstrating the continued breakdown of governance and social order across the Gaza Strip.[41] The killing sparked clashes between Hamas security officers and the boy’s family in Tal al Sultan. A crowd formed after the killing, burning a Hamas police station and demanding revenge for the boy’s death.[42] A separate video showed plainclothes Hamas officers beating an individual with a stick in Khan Younis.[43] These reports are consistent with the Associated Press’s November 10 reporting, which noted that the strip’s society was “fraying” and that the population was beginning to push back against Hamas’ rule in the southern Gaza Strip.[44]

I thought O2 might find this summary of the current attempts at negotiations from the Hamas side interesting.  To me it seems a bit like Hitler moving around imaginary armies in his bunker in the ruins of Berlin.... a bit fanciful considering their current situation.

As might be obvious, the presence of any sort of legitimate Hamas related governance in Gaza almost makes the Israeli's efforts pointless (it would almost certainly result in Gaza simply returning to what it was, round and round).

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Hamas and its Palestinian allies are trying to shape peace negotiations in a way that is incompatible with the stated Israeli war aims. Hamas representatives met with other Palestinian factions in Beirut on December 27 to discuss the war and a possible ceasefire.[9] The other factions included Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the leftist Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), and the PFLP-General Command (PFLP-GC). These groups called collectively for establishing a national dialogue among all Palestinian factions, a unity government that includes all Palestinian factions, an end to the Israel-Hamas war, and free elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.[10] The groups also called for a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. The groups said that the October 7 attack was a “historic turning point” and reaffirmed the importance of the Palestinian issue.[11] They blamed the Oslo Accords for the “decline” of the importance of the Palestinian cause in the Middle East.[12] These principles articulated by the Palestinian factions conflict with Israeli war aims, which Israeli officials have said are to “destroy Hamas, demilitarize Gaza, and deradicalize Palestinian society.”[13] The participation of Hamas and other radical groups, such as PIJ, that seek the destruction of Israel in a future Gazan or Palestinian government is tantamount to an Israeli defeat in this war.

Hamas and its Palestinian allies are using multiple, overlapping negotiations with different external parties to embed themselves in a postwar “unity government” and thereby undermining Israel’s ability to accomplish its war aims. Hamas is engaging in at least four sets of separate negotiations to counter any Israeli and Western efforts to form a governing authority that excludes Hamas. The negotiations in which Hamas representatives are involved include one with Egypt regarding the war itself, a second with its wartime allies in the Palestinian Allied Factions, a third with former Fatah and Palestinian Authority (PA) officials, and a fourth with the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO).[14] Hamas political leaders met with Fatah and PA officials, including a deputy to Mohammed Dahlan and a former PA foreign affairs minister, to discuss integrating Hamas into the PLO after the war.[15] These negotiations will limit Israel’s ability to build a viable postwar governing authority in the form of a “reformed PA” by associating many of a reformed PA’s possible leaders with Hamas.[16]

Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar is likely using Israeli hostages he holds as leverage to keep Hamas’ Gaza Strip leaders at the table during these negotiations—rather than delegating such negotiations exclusively to Hamas’ external leadership. CTP-ISW still assesses that Hamas writ large is also using the Israeli hostages as leverage to ensure its continued relevance in postwar negotiations.[17] Sinwar is opposed to negotiations with the PLO because these talks sideline Sinwar. Sinwar asked Hamas leaders outside the Gaza Strip to cease talks with the PLO and PA.[18] Sinwar’s refusal to release hostages is in part to use them as leverage to maintain his influence in the negotiations. Hamas has also repeatedly refused to release its hostages prior to a comprehensive ceasefire, including in the December 28 joint statement after the meeting in Beirut.[19] Sinwar’s ability to agree to or refuse a hostage exchange allows him to maintain his influence within the movement writ large.

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I also thought it might be useful to show.  As you can probably see there is an explosion running the whole frame.  I have seen this described as "carpet bombing".  It is not.  This is the result of putting a lot of explosives in a very large tunnel and that tunnel blowing up through the surface. Carpet bombing is indiscriminate (essentially un-aimed) area bombing of a city or area (e.g. what the British did to German cities in WWII).  Whatever your opinion of the Israeli aerial bombing in Gaza, it in now way can reasonably be described as "carpet bombing".

Imagine if Hamas expended all the effort on digging tunnels on actually doing something constructive for their people and for peaceful coexistence with Israel. 

Some updates.  Ground situation is similar (still finding tunnels and weapons everywhere).  Hamas celebrated the new year by launching a missile strike into Israel, which of course only encourages Israel to finish what they have started.  Outside of Gaza...

The US navy has been shooting down drones and taking out speed boats near Yeman.

Probably saying it is there to "protect shipping"....

Iran's IRIS 'Alborz' warship has entered the Red Sea near Yemen

Senior Hamas leader was eliminated in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh - a stronghold of Hezbollah.

Foreign reports suggest it is an Israeli UAV.

Among the other eliminated Hamas officials in that UAV strike is Saleh al-Arouri - one of the founding fathers of the Hamas military wing.

Apparently there are 6 others that were taken out also.

Semi-Related:

Some may remember Soleimani being taken out (exactly 4 years ago, so the anniversary) by a couple of Hellfire missiles that have multiple blades that spring out rather than an explosive (to avoid secondary damage).  Soleimani was the head of the Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force and was a bit of "problem" for a lot of people, including the ruling power inside Iran (he had a lot of money, power, and military forces under his control).  He was responsible for organizing attacks on US service men in Iraq and was responsible for the various attacks on US and others powers in clear attempts at agitation.  It is very likely many Iranians (including those in power) where glad to see him go also.

There were concerns the anniversary might be a motivation for some sort of revenge attack.  This is clearly an interesting turn on that!

In this case, it is interesting to note the two bomb tactic.  This is a common "terror" tactic to first cause damage then to cause even more damage when people come in to help (an obviously pretty brutal tactic because it tends to hit medical teams etc).  This is the exact sort of thing Soleimani might do, so in a way, an appropriate tribute (!?!?).  The question is, who would do this?  Very much in the "style" of his people, but they clearly would not want to blow themselves up (an internal squabble?).  Those that oppose him will generally be the less violent types (why they oppose him really).

Certainly the protesting (against the oppressiveness of the government) that has been going on in Iran might be somehow involved.  I think we can be pretty certain who Iran will official blame though....

At least 103 killed in blasts near Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani’s grave

IRINN, another state television channel, reported that the first explosion near the grave of Soleimani was caused by a bomb placed in a suitcase inside a Peugeot 405 car, and appeared to be detonated remotely.

Iran’s Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said the first explosion happened at 3:00 p.m. local time (6 a.m. ET) during an interview with Iran’s state news channel IRIB. Vahidi said the second, more deadly blast took place 20 minutes later, when other pilgrims came to help the injured.

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the blasts.....

This seems rather pre-mature, if Israel is going to try to do what it said it was going to do.  If true, maybe the length of mobilization is too hard on Israel?  As noted below, this just seems to be asking for Hamas to re-consititute and just keep doing what it has been doing... round and round...

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Israeli forces are transitioning to the third phase of their operations in the northern Gaza Strip, which will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that it withdrew five brigades from the northern Gaza Strip on December 31.[1] This reduction in forces is part of what the IDF has described as its third phase in the strip, which also involves ending major combat operations, releasing reservists, transitioning to “targeted raids,” and establishing a security buffer zone within the Gaza Strip.[2] Israeli forces have degraded several Hamas units and rendered others combat ineffective, particularly in the northern Gaza strip, since the beginning of the clearing operations.[3] But Hamas’ military forces are neither defeated nor destroyed at this time. Decreased Israeli pressure would, in fact, allow Hamas to rebuild its military capabilities and infrastructure. Hamas maintains a conventional military structure, meaning that it should be able to quickly replace commanders who have died in the war.[4] Several recently killed Hamas battalion and brigade commanders had led their units for many years, suggesting that they had the ability and time to develop successors to take their place.[5] Such reconstitution is inconsistent with the stated Israeli war aims, which are to destroy Hamas militarily and politically.[6]

Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” will very likely continue their regional escalation against the United States and Israel, despite Israel withdrawing some of its forces from the Gaza Strip. Iran and its regional network of proxies and partners have conducted almost daily attacks targeting American service members and international shipping across the Middle East in recent months. They have framed their attacks as responses to Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip and US support for Israel. This escalation is, in actuality, meant to support Tehran’s regional project. Iranian leaders have long used their Axis of Resistance to threaten US personnel and commercial traffic in the Middle East because doing so supports the long-standing Iranian objectives of attaining regional hegemony and expelling the US military from the region.

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:

Imagine if Hamas expended all the effort on digging tunnels on actually doing something constructive for their people and for peaceful coexistence with Israel. 

Imagine if (any govt) expended all the effort on destruction of anything, doing something constructive for their people.  This logic seems to apply almost universally today.  

Regarding blowing up Iranians, who of course blamed the US and Israel, looks like it was ISIS K (the ones in Afghanistan, they hate the Taliban BTW).  It does seem like more of an ISIS style attack.

You might say, but hey, they are all Muslim... well, being non-Muslim will make some Muslim angry... being the WRONG type of Muslim makes them VERY angry!   ISIS is Sunni, Iranians are Shia... very bad.  They consider them poly-theist and the effective worshiping of Saleimani is also seen as distasteful.

Islamic State claims responsibility for deadly Iran attack, Tehran vows revenge

 Islamic State claimed responsibility on Thursday for two explosions in Iran that killed nearly 100 people and wounded scores at a memorial for top commander Qassem Soleimani who was killed in Iraq in 2020 by a U.S. drone.

In a statement posted on its affiliate Telegram channels, the militant Sunni Muslim group said two IS members had detonated their explosive belts in the crowd which had gathered at the cemetery in the southeastern Iranian city of Kerman on Wednesday for the anniversary of Soleimani's death.....

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-vows-revenge-after-biggest-attack-since-1979-revolution-2024-01-04/

In reply to aircooled :

To a believer, there's nothing worse than a heretic. You could easily write the same sentence and simply replace "Muslim" with "Christian" and be entirely accurate, at least over a period of maybe 1200 years or so; things have become less tense in Christendom since the mid-17th Century. Even so, recall that among Protestants there was a vocal opposition to JFK running for president in 1960 simply on the grounds that he was a Catholic and would always hold his allegiance to the Vatican first.

02Pilot said:

In reply to aircooled :

To a believer, there's nothing worse than a heretic. You could easily write the same sentence and simply replace "Muslim" with "Christian" and be entirely accurate, at least over a period of maybe 1200 years or so; things have become less tense in Christendom since the mid-17th Century. Even so, recall that among Protestants there was a vocal opposition to JFK running for president in 1960 simply on the grounds that he was a Catholic and would always hold his allegiance to the Vatican first.

No religion?  I understand it's pretty tough to discuss this conflict without full context, but aren't those the self imposed rules?